
Bất động sản Việt Nam đang nhìn thấy những tín hiệu lạc quan hơn
Các thách thức vẫn đang tồn tại trên thị trường bất động sản, tuy nhiên, bên cạnh đó đang có những tín hiệu lạc quan từ việc tăng trưởng kinh tế tích cực, sự gia tăng của tầng lớp giàu có, nhu cầu sở hữu căn nhà thứ hai.
Các chuyên gia đều cho rằng đang có những chuyển biến tích cực từ phía thị trường và cả các nhà làm chính sách. Theo đó, các vấn đề về cấp phép dự án sẽ sớm được giải quyết, nhờ sự phối hợp giữa các nhà phát triển BĐS trong nước và chính quyền địa phương và trung ương.
“Nhìn vào hiệu quả của các nhà phát triển BĐS trên thị trường chứng khoán cũng như những yếu tố hỗ trợ cho hệ sinh thái BĐS, chúng tôi không lo ngại nhiều về hiệu quả thị trường nói chung” ông Neil Macgregor, tổng giám đốc Savills Việt Nam khẳng định tại Hội nghị BĐS 2019 do Forbes Việt Nam tổ chức sáng 7/11 ở TPHCM.
Theo đó, BĐS Việt Nam hiện đang nhìn thấy nhiều tín hiệu lạc quan, thể hiện ở mức tăng trưởng kinh tế tích cực, sự gia tăng của tầng lớp trung lưu và giàu có, nhu cầu sở hữu căn nhà thứ hai đang nở rộ, quy mô thị trường đang thực sự được mở rộng… Dẫu vậy hiện tại hầu hết các yêu tố tích cực này đều “khựng” lại trước nút thắt pháp lý khiến thị trường mất điểm cân bằng từ đầu năm.
Ông Nguyễn Thái Phiên, Giám đốc cấp cao tài chính doanh nghiệp của Novaland cũng nhìn nhận “cầu vẫn rất cao” nhưng các nút thắt hiện tại khiến nguồn cung trên thị trường bất động sản TPHCM sụt giảm mạnh. Nhận xét trên bình diện chung của thị trường ông Phiên đánh giá các công ty địa ốc nói chung gặp nhiều áp lực trong tìm kiếm quỹ đất trong khi đó phải đảm bảo sản phẩm chào bán ra thị trường với mức giá “chấp nhận được”, duy trì sự cạnh tranh.
Tiếp cận quỹ đất và xin cấp phép dự án cũng là thách thức lớn của các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài, theo ông Ivor Cosimo Jencks – Tổng giám đốc phụ trách phát triển kinh doanh bất động sản thương mại khu vực Nam Á của HongKong Land. Tuy nhiên, ông cho rằng trong bối cảnh kinh tế tăng trưởng tích cực “mang tính hiện tượng” của Việt Nam những năm gần đây, cũng như sự gia tăng nhanh chóng của tầng lớp giàu có trung lưu, khiến phân khúc căn hộ cao cấp vẫn được quan tâm nhiều.
“Các nhà phát triển bất động sản quốc tế vẫn nhìn thấy sự phát triển lạc quan ở phân khúc này dù luật chơi đang thay đổi, các vấn đề pháp lý trở nên nghiêm ngặt hơn, các dự án được phê duyệt chậm hơn,” ông Ivor nói và cho biết HongKong Land vẫn không có kế hoạch phát triển ra ngoài “thị trường truyền thống” của mình là ở khu vực trung tâm TPHCM.
Trong khi đó, Tiến sĩ Lê Anh Tuấn, phó tổng giám đốc quỹ Dragon Capital thì nhấn mạnh rằng dù chứng kiến nhiều điểm sáng – tối đan xen, tuy nhiên nhà đầu tư vẫn tin rằng trong dài hạn, mọi người đều có thể lạc quan về thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam.
Bốn yếu tố được chuyên gia này đánh giá là trụ cột cho sự phát triển bền vững của thị trường địa ốc trong dài hạn gồm: Sự tăng trưởng nhanh chóng của tầng lớp trung lưu Việt Nam; Kinh tế vĩ mô Việt Nam tiếp tục ổn định; Cơ sở hạ tầng Việt Nam được cải thiện và liên tục đầu tư mới; Tỷ lệ đô thị hóa gia tăng nhanh chóng từ thành tích phát triển của nền kinh tế.
Vị chuyên gia này lý giải, ở yếu tố thứ nhất, tầng lớp trung lưu Việt Nam trong một thập kỷ qua gia tăng nhanh chóng. Trích dẫn báo cáo từ Consultant Group – tổ chức tư vấn ước tính tầng lớp trung lưu Việt Nam đã tăng khoảng 175% trong 8 năm qua. Sự gia tăng của tầng lớp trung lưu tạo ra nhu cầu dài hạn với thị trường địa ốc.
Yếu tố thứ hai là sự ổn định về kinh tế vĩ mô, với việc tỷ giá, lạm phát và lãi suất được kiểm soát ổn định trong ba năm qua, kinh tế Việt Nam được coi là một điểm sáng trong khu vực. Kinh tế vĩ mô ổn định trở thành nền tảng để giữ thị trường bất động sản phát triển bền vững.
Về cơ sở hạ tầng, ông Tuấn cho rằng với tốc độ phát triển kinh tế, nguồn vốn đầu tư cơ sở hạ tầng tại Việt Nam vẫn đang tăng. Thực tế, một minh chứng, tại TPHCM, dự án Metro với các dự án bất động sản bám dọc tuyến tàu điện này cho thấy cú huých của hạ tầng giao thông với sự phát triển của các dự án địa ốc.
Cuối cùng, tỷ lệ đô thị hóa tại Việt Nam hiện cao thứ hai tại châu Á giúp thị trường địa ốc phát triển bền vững trong dài hạn.
Trong dự báo ngắn hạn, chuyên gia này đánh giá, bất động sản cao cấp, sức nóng có thể giảm dần trong tương lai. Hiện tại, gần như các dự án hiện có trên thị trường đều được bán hết. Tuy nhiên, mức giá giữa hai thị trường bất động sản sơ cấp và thứ cấp đang có chênh lệch lớn, ở mức 20-30%.
Đối với phân khúc tầm trung, tăng trưởng và ổn định sẽ là xu thế trong dài hạn. Lý do, mức thu nhập bình quân đầu người tăng, và số lượng tầng lớp trung lưu tăng nhanh đột biến sẽ tạo ra sức cầu dồi dào. Trong đó, vấn đề nằm ở khía cạnh các nhà phát triển dự án liệu có đủ nguồn cung đưa ra đáp ứng nhu cầu thị trường. Một góc khác, chất lượng của các sản phẩm ở phân khúc trung – cao cấp ngày càng được cải thiện, kết hợp với nhiều giải pháp tái cấu trúc tài chính hợp lý cho người mua tạo ra sự lạc quan cho thị trường.
Ông Lê Anh Tuấn cũng nhận xét các doanh nghiệp bất động sản có thể đã gặp khó khăn khi huy động vốn trong khoảng 2-3 năm qua khi tín dụng bất động sản bị siết chặt. Nhưng giai đoạn khó khăn nhất có thể đã qua, và tới thời điểm hiện tại, các doanh nghiệp địa ốc có thể huy động vốn qua kênh trái phiếu với chi phí vốn hợp lý.
Còn theo dự báo của CBRE Việt Nam, trong năm 2020, sẽ có 4 xu hướng dẫn dắt thị trường căn hộ, bao gồm các đô thị ở các vùng ngoại vi thành phố sẽ là nơi tạo nguồn cung chính; khả năng hấp thụ thị trường vẫn tốt hơn trong bối cảnh giá bán ổn định. Các nhà phát triển bất động sản sẽ chú trọng đa dạng sản phẩm mới nhưng tập trung vào sự tiện lợi của cư dân và tối đa hóa diện tích sử dụng. Một yếu tố quan trọng nữa sẽ thúc đẩy giá căn hộ tiếp tục tăng trong tương lai đến từ việc kết nối hạ tầng liên tỉnh, bao gồm các tỉnh lân cận TPHCM như Đồng Nai, Bình Dương, Long An
Theo CRBE, với việc thiếu hụt nguồn cung, các chủ đầu tư sẽ tìm kiếm các dự án mới tại khu vực ngoại ô và các khu vực lân cận TPHCM. Theo đó, kỳ vọng năm 2020 nguồn cung sẽ phục hồi, nhiều dự án được khơi thông và đưa ra thị trường trong năm 2020-2021.
Giá bán căn hộ tại TPHCM được CBRE dự báo sẽ tăng trung bình 5-10%/năm, đặc biệt ở phân khúc hạng sang, trong khi Hà Nội giá bán kỳ vọng tiếp tục tăng dao động nhẹ 3-4%/năm. Các chủ đầu tư sẽ đưa ra nhiều sản phẩm mới theo hướng tập trung vào tiện ích của người dân và tối đa hóa diện tích sử dụng. Dù nguồn cung khó khăn nhưng nhu cầu lớn sẽ vẫn giữ đà tăng tiêu thụ và giá bán cho thị trường ở cả hai khu vực.
Theo Nam Phong
Nhịp sống Việt
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